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This whole time I thought "more likely" = strictly correlation because it means the same as "tend to" which is also correlation, but it seems like it can be used as causation as well according to the more recent PTs.
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Yeah, I think it would depend on context.
Correlation Example: "A is more likely to happen if B occurs. This is because B only appears when C appears. C directly increases the likelihood of A occurring." In this example, C is what is actually causing A and B to appear. However, because B only appears when C appears, the appearance of B means that A will likely appear (because C causes A). Thus, A and B are only correlated.
Like A is more likely to happen if B happens? It's at best a partial causation. More likely is never indicative of full causation because the event was already likely.
It depends on the context. Advanced causal statements can be probabilistic, partial, or multipilistic in nature.